Joe Fejes offers up his annual analysis of the men’s field … as only Joe Fejes can! His takes are always bold and equal parts educational and entertaining. His predictions have not always panned out, but he one of the most experienced and credible ultra runners, especially when it comes to multi-day and 24 hour running. Enjoy!!
The men’s race for Saturday’s Desert Solstice 24 hour ultrarunning track event in Phoenix Arizona will undoubtedly be mesmerizing for the ultra-community to follow and has the potential as being one of the most competitive events ever with at least 7 runners that have run more than 140 miles in 24 hours.
Desert Solstice promises to be even more captivating than Kilian Jornet’s recent ill-fated 24 hour World Record attempt in Norway, since Zach Bitter recently made it known that he too is gunning for the immortal Yiannis Kouros 24 hour WR of 188.589 miles. The acronym has shifted from the past tense WWJD (“What Would Jornet Do”) to the present tense of WWZD (“What Will Zach Do”) .
Zach’s 11:19 100 mile (6:47 pace per mile) and 104.8 miles 12 hour World Records achieved two years ago at the Six Days in the Dome was by far the greatest ultrarunning effort I have ever personally witnessed-even greater than when I witnessed Mike Morton’s 172 mile 24 hour American Record. In my opinion, Zach is virtually the only human alive that has a realistic chance of approaching YK’s WR. For those unaware, Zach’s 104.8 mile 12 hour mark is actually more than 4 miles further than the Running God’s former 12 hour World Record performance (100.78 miles).
In my opinion, Zach’s achievements haven’t received the recognition that he deserves. Of course, Zach’s attempt will not be without drama since Debbie Downer naysayers (or other ultrarunning community trolls) will point to Zach’s unsuccessful 2018 24 hour debut that ended prematurely after “X” hours after he completed 116 miles. Zach has yet to prove he can go the full 24 hour duration. If he does, look for a YUGE number. It should be no surprise that Zach should be considered the prohibitive favorite to win the 24 hour if he goes the full duration. Sure t’aint easy—just ask Kilian.
Zach’s climb to the top of the podium will not be without challenge from the rest of the field. In fact, truth be told, if I were a betting man and If Vegas were taking bets on this year’s Desert Solstice, I would bet the field v. the favorite. Why, you may ask?
- High Stakes: The USA Team 24 hour qualification is slated to end soon on January 20, 2021. Currently there are only 5 qualifiers for the 6 qualifying spots. The current list of qualifiers along with respective qualifying mileage: Olivier Leblond (Auto) 171.18, Jacob Jackson, 165.07, Harvey Lewis, 160.70, Jacob Moss, 159.15 and Rolfe Schmidt, 145.8. Keep in mind that most of the participants at Desert Solstice signed up with the sole intention of making the USA national team. The minimum qualifying standard for the men is 145 miles.
- Variance Risk/Strength in Numbers: A personal best performance in the 24 hour for any one participant is highly dependent upon a number of variables which means that it is rare for a 24 hour runner to always meet or exceed expectations in any given race. Betting the field results in lower volatility since the risk is spread across multiple runners rather isolated in a single runner.
Field Predictions for the men’s field. Let’s take a brief look at a few of our 18 horses:
- Olivier Leblond. Big “O” in my opinion is the best multiday runner in ultrarunning today. Big O’s (24) hour personal best of 171.17 miles at last year’s IAU World Championship fell 1 mile short of breaking Mike Morton’s 172.45 American Record. It is my understanding however that Olivier’s goal at Desert Solstice is to achieve a 100 mile personal best and nothing more. If Olivier were targeting the 24 at DS, Zach would not be my prohibitive favorite. Olivier already qualified the national team by virtue of his bronze medal individual performance at the last IAU 24 hour World Championship.
- Jacob Jackson. JJ is my vote for today’s 2nd best 24 hour runner behind only Olivier LeBlond. He is the rarity amongst 24 hour runners having nailed his debut by running 253.614 km at the 2018 Desert Solstice and qualifying for the 2019 USA Team with an astounding inaugural 24 hour performance of 157.58 miles. For comparison sake, my best ever 24 hour performance was 156 miles.
At the IAU World Championship, JJ improved on his 157.58, debut performance by a staggering 7.48 miles, finishing in 7th on the World Stage with 165.06 miles. His mark is also the 7th best American performance ever.
As a side note, let the record reflect that I predict great things for JJ’s future in multiday running. JJ v. Big O will likely be the multiday running future equivalent to the Ali v. Frazier boxing matches. Or maybe even like the great westerns on TV–if I was a participant against these two – I’d be certain to get the hell out of Dodge.
- Harvey Lewis a/k/a “Mr. Consistency”. In certain respects, Harv could be considered the best 24 hour in the world for the past decade, with a personal best of 160.34 miles and more than seven other annual performances of 140 miles since 2011, to wit: 2019 (160.69), 2018 (153.48), 2017 (144.18), 2015 (158.74), 2014 (154.58), 2013 (150.58), 2012 (148.95) and 2011 (140.57). Harvey’s passion is competing for Team USA and I expect he will be primed again for his opportunity to make the team yet again.
- Nick Coury. Nick was my teammate on our 2013 (24 hour) USA national team when we won the gold medal at the IAU World Championship in Steenbergen, Netherlands. From 2014-2018 Nick primarily focus was trail running. At the 2018 Desert Solstice, Nick shocked the ultrarunning community (and particularly this commentator) by running a personal best 24 hour distance of 155.03 miles after a pedestrian-like 15:33 100 mile split.
- Bob Hearn. What about Bob? As sad as it may sound, Desert Solstice may very well represent Bob’s last real opportunity of making Team USA. He is now the ripe old age of 55 and Father Time can be seen on trackside carrying his hourglass and swiping at Bob’s Nike’s with his scythe.
To my personal chagrin (I’m turning 55 myself on Monday), Bob has dominated the 50-54 age group record scene. In fact, earlier this year he ran a personal best 14:44 100 mile at the SC Ultrarunning Festival (“SCURF”). Bob has current 24 hour personal best of 154.05 miles. Despite Bob’s advanced age, he is still capable of putting up a mid to high 150 mile mark and is notorious for his steady pacing,
Bob has suffered considerable heartbreak in the last two national qualifiers. In the 2018 Desert Solstice 24 hour, Bob was rudely bumped out of the final qualifying spot for the 2019 national team, over the last four hundred meters by Greg Armstrong (and Nick Coury). In 2017, Bob suffered even a more gut wrenching result, collapsing on the track at the end of 24 hours and realizing he missed the final team slot by less than 300 meters. For a great read on Bob check out his blog: http://bobhearn.blogspot.com/2017/04/run4water-2017-my-masterpiece.html
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Weather: Saturday’s forecast for Phoenix metropolitan is looking solid for the runners—fairly moderate temps- 67/46 with partly cloudy conditions. The Desert Solstice track is of course naturally exposed to full sun conditions and often feels much warmer than the actual temperature. Word of advice to those runners that struggle with GI issues in the 24 hour or have a tendency to blow chunks—I highly recommend you leave some slack in your line during the day and only reel it in once the sun goes down—you will be better off.
Race predictions: The talent in the men’s field is loaded. The field includes the World’s Fastest Man (at least for 100 miles) Zach Bitter who has the potential (at least on paper) to break Mike Morton’s 172 mile American Record and perhaps even mount a serious challenge to Yiannis Kouros’s untouchable 188+ miles. It also features a group of highly disciplined, experienced 24 hour veterans (Coury, Lewis, Hearn) who are almost guaranteed to exceed the 145 mile minimum qualifying standard.
Traer, Trammell & Pope might sound like a great name for a law firm but don’t be surprised if you hear these names as having met the 145 mile minimum qualifying standard too. In fact, virtually every runner in the field has a realistic potential of meeting the standard.
This race is likely to be a mental monster for many of the runners chasing the 24 hour qualification because they are in no man’s land—caught up in a crossfire between the likely whir of Bitter & Leblond circling the track and the passive aggressive (but deadly) pacing of the terrific three Hearn, Coury & Lewis designed to ever so subtly reel in the competition as the race unfolds.
I’m particularly concerned about the impact the two widely divergent race strategies may have on several of the less experienced ultrarunners, more specifically: Camastro, Urbankski & McHugh. All three of these runners have 100 mile personal best of 15:30 or faster and may be susceptible to getting swept up running too fast from the start. As such I believe they have elevated C & B (crash & burn) risk levels. The good news for them, my pre-race predictions are overwhelmingly wrong.
Ryan Clifford, age 24, might be Desert Solstice’s entrant that is equivalent to the Barkley’s sacrificial virgin—I believe this will be Ryan’s second ultra and first over 12 hours. Although Ryan is a newcomer to ultrarunning, he has uber impressive shorter distance credentials and is a graduate assistant/track coach at Minot State University in Minot, North Dakota. He is a 4:27 miler, a 14:38 5ker, and a 2:55 marathoner. Trust me when I say that the urge to keep up with the faster runners will likely be irresistible. His C & B risk level is off the grid—the equivalent of jumping in a pool of gasoline with a lighted match.
Podium Picks:
- Zach Bitter. I like Zach’s chance to go the duration—especially if his game plan is to run his own race rather than succumbing to trying to break YK’s 188 mile WR. Sometimes less is more. Most importantly, I hope his “A” goal is to qualify for Team USA.
- Jake Jackson. Astounding fact. If JJ improved his performance in his 3rd attempt at the 24 hour by the same margin (i.e. 7.48) miles that he did in his 2nd attempt—he would run 172.54 miles break Mike Morton’s current American Record of 172.48.
- Harvey Lewis. I flip flopped between Harvey and Nick Coury for the bottom rung on the podium—flip a coin. I gave Harvey the edge based on his 160 mile performance at the World Championship. Nick’s recent 14:09–performance at Javelina Jundred earlier this year is a harbinger of his recent fitness level and suggests he could improve significantly on his 155 mile personal best performance achieved at the 2018 Desert Solstice.
Outlaw Runs 