2019 IAU 24 Hour World Championship – Women’s Individual

Joe Fejes returns again to offer up his preview on the 2019 IAU World Championship.  Men’s race. Joe was on the 2013 USA Team that won gold with a third all-time distance of  781km. He was a scoring member with 248.14km. He was also part of the 2012 (Katowice) bronze medal team with Mike Morton and Harvey Lewis.  Joe holds the 6-Day American Record with 606 and recently completed 532 miles at 6 Days at the Dome, a race he also created and directed. Below is Joe’s take on what to expect in the WOMEN’S INDIVIDUAL COMPETITION:

Fasten your shoestrings ultrarunners, the women’s individual race will be the crown jewel of this year’s championship.

Expect an intense and fierce battle for the gold between USA’s Camille Herron and Poland’s Patrycja Bereznowska. Last year at the prestigious Desert Solstice Invitational, Herron eclipsed Bereznowksa’s 161.55 mile 24-hour World Record by running 162.91 miles.

Below are the comparative individual statistics for the top 25 runners. I have also added the 100k, 50k and 12-hour bests for a few selected runners.

#	Country	Runner		KM	MILES	100 km	50 k	12 hr (km)
1	USA	Camille Herron		262.19	162.92	7:08	3:20	149.00
2	POL	Patrycja Bereznowska		259.99	161.55	8:00		140.32
3	USA	Courtney Dauwalter		256.41	159.33			133.60
4	CZE	Radka Churanova		251.5	156.28	7:22	3:28
5	GER	Nele Alder-Baerens		251.22	156.10	7:22	3:20	148.14
6	POL	Aleksandra Niwinska		251.07	156.01			139.51
7	SWE	Maria Jansson		250.65	155.75		4:07	127.15
8	USA	Katalin Nagy		250.62	155.73	8:03		137.20
9	USA	Gina Slaby		248.28	154.27	8:44
10	USA	Pam Smith		243.36	151.22	7:43		136.40
11	POL	Malgorzata Pazda-Pozorska		240.67	149.55
12	GBR	Jessica Baker		238.71	148.33
13	GER	Antje Krause		237.84	144.79
14	POL	Monika Biegasiewicz		236.40	146.89
15	USA	Megan Alvarado		236.36	146.87*
16	GER	Julia Fatton		236.18	146.76
17	FIN	Noora Honkala		234.94	145.99
18	JPN	Yuri Matsumoto		234.62	145.79
19	CRO	Antonija Orlić		232.26	144.32
20	ROU	Mariana Nenu		231.12	143.61
21	JPN	Mizuki Aotani		230.61	143.29
22	IRL	Amy Masner		228.58	142.02
23	POL	Aneta Rajda		228.38	141.91
24	GER	Simone Durry		228.07	141.72
25	POL	Milena Grabska-Grzegorczyk		227.51	141.37

*note Megan’s best 24 hour the past 3 years is actually 146.87 miles rather than the 140.56 miles performance submitted to the IAU.

Herron & Bereznowska’s running styles are like fire & water.

Camille runs like her hair is on fire and has raw leg speed that is a rarity among 24-hour runners. She is also 3-time former Olympic marathon trial runner with a personal best of 2:37. In 2015, she won both the 50 km and 100 km World Championships. In June 2017, she became only the 3rd American to win the Comrades, leading from start-to-finish. She is undoubtedly the premier Women’s ultrarunner in the World today. She also holds the 100 Mile World Record with a blistering 12:42

Herron’s s personal bests:

50K: 3:20:58 50 Miles: 5:38:41 100K: 7:08:35 12 hrs: 149.130km (92.665 miles) 100 miles: 12:42:40 24 hrs: 262.193km (162.919 miles)

Bereznowska isn’t particularly fast. In fact, her Wikipedia entry only lists her 24-hour accomplishments. She is the defending World Champion having won the gold in Belfast in 2017 with 259.99 km. She also won the gold in last year’s European Championship in Romania with 243.35 km and is a Spartathlon champion setting the course record of 24:48 in 2017.

But her endurance is remarkable as evidenced by her 48-hour World Record of 401 km/249.17 miles in her multiday debut. Prior to becoming a superstar ultrarunner, she was a horseback rider, specializing in world championship long distance horseback racing.

I expect Camille to run like Sorokin and have a substantial lead at the halfway point. Bereznowska will likely employ a much more conservative even paced strategy and hope to reel Herron in during the second half of the race. At last year’s 2018 European 24-hour Championship, Pat was in 6^th place for the women at the 100 km split before reeling in her competition and winning the event. Bereznowska’s patience is further evidenced in this IAU recap on how the 2018 European Championship unfolded for the women:

The first 14 hours were in hands of Antonija Orlic (CRO). She was the only one that run 100K below 9h (8:53h). Just behind her crossing 100K in 9:04h was Stine Rex (DEN). After 100 miles mark Patrycja Bereznowska (POL) closed the gap and joined both Antonija Orlic and Stine Rex. Finally, after 16 hours Stine Rex took over the lead as Orlic could not hold strong pace anymore. At this stage there was a strong performance of all Polish runners and they were already in top 15. Patrycja Bereznowska on 2nd, Monika Biegasiewicz on 4th, Małgorzata Pazda-Pozorska on 5th.  After 18 hours it was Bereznowska who took over the lead. She manage to hold this lead till the end but it was all very close for remaining 6 hours. Stine Rex was just 1 lap behind and at the same time Małgorzata Pazda-Pozorska moved to third position leaving her teammate Biegasiewicz on 4th.

Behind Herron & Bereznowska, there are five runners (Dauwalter, Churanova, Alder-Barens and Niwinska) with qualifying marks that are less than 6 miles from Herron’s 162.91 World Record.

Third ranked Courtney Dauwalter is probably the most diverse road/trail/track ultrarunner today having won UTMB (24:34), Western States (17:27), Soochow 24 hour (158.97 miles), Moab 200 miler, and finishing 2^nd at Big’s Backyard (67 hours). She is like Bereznowska in not having particularly raw top end speed however her endurance is off the charts. Interestingly, before she started ultrarunning she was a collegiate cross-country skiing phenom at the University of Denver.

Interestingly, both the #4 & #5 ranked runners, Churanova and Alder-Baerens, have 100 km times of 7:22, trailing only Herron’s 7:08 performance. Don’t let anyone fool you, possessing leg speed does matter in the 24 hour.

Germany’s Nele Alder-Baerens is a particularly intriguing runner. She is deaf, partially blind and has won 5 medals at the Deaflympics dating back to 2001 in the 800, 5k, 10k and marathon. She also finished 2^nd at the 2016 50 km IAU World Championship in Doha and 2^nd in last’s years IAU 100 km World Championship held in Croatia. She is also a 2:47 marathoner.

Czech’s Radka Churanova is a fastie too and a prolific marathon runner. Earlier this year on May 5 she ran a 2:50 marathon at the Belfast City Marathon. Three weeks later she won the Liverpool Rock & Roll marathon in 2:54. She ran 2:45 back in 2004. She has run 7 ultras and has won them all. Last year at the

100 km Lauf Pilsen, she ran 7:22 winning the race overall and defeating a couple of her male Czech compatriots, Radek Brunner & Ondrej Velicka.

Poland’s Aleksandra Niwinska cannot be overlooked as well. In 2017 she finished third at the Spartathlon and was the silver medalist at the last 24-hour World Championship. This will be her 5^th 24-hour World Championship.

Don’t discount Sweden’s Maria Jansson as she was the winner of the 2016 European 24-hour Championship held on the same course at Albi and almost 10k in front of 2^nd place, Bereznowska.

How about a Cinderella story? Can a runner outside the top 10 realistically contend for the “W” or the podium? How about a runner that has a qualifying mark is only the 140s?

The answer to these questions is absolutely! In 2013, John Dennis, qualified for the USA 24 Hour team with a 139.41 miles. At the World Championship in Steenbergen, he ran 162.89 miles and won the silver medal behind only Jon Olsen. Don’t be shocked if it happens again this year.

Final thought. This year’s 24 Hour Women’s race will ultimately be a death fight between Speed and Endurance.

I can’t wait to see who prevails.

2019 IAU 24 Hour World Championship – Women’s Team

Joe Fejes returns again to offer up his preview on the 2019 IAU World Championship.  Men’s race. Joe was on the 2013 USA Team that won gold with a third all-time distance of  781km. He was a scoring member with 248.14km. He was also part of the 2012 (Katowice) bronze medal team with Mike Morton and Harvey Lewis.  Joe holds the 6-Day American Record with 606 and recently completed 532 miles at 6 Days at the Dome, a race he also created and directed. Below is Joe’s take on what to expect in the WOMEN’S TEAM COMPETITION:

Why the 2019 IAU 24 Hour Championship Women’s Team Competition will go down as the greatest match-up ever in the history of IAU Ultrarunning World Championships — men or women.

It should be a high crime and misdemeanor that the 24 Hour World Championship in Albi, France, this weekend isn’t being broadcast in some form as part of the USATF/NBC television deal. I can almost guarantee there would be a bigger and more excited audience following the drama of the 24-hour race rather than the 5^th Avenue Mile or the Peachtree Road Race that made the cut for the 2019 track & field television broadcast schedule.

Remember the 1996 Olympics USA men’s basketball “Dream Team” lineup consisting of Charles Barkley, Scottie Pippen, Karl Malone, Reggie Miller, Shaq, Grant Hill, et al?

Just as talented in our sport of 24-hour ultrarunning is the 2019 USA Women’s 24-hour national team’s (USW24T) starting lineup consisting of Camille Herron, Courtney Dauwaulter, Katalin Nagy, Gina Slaby, Pam Smith, and Megan Alvarado and alternate Micah Morgan.

First, let’s compare the pre-race qualifying statistics for the top 10 Women’s teams. As shown in the chart below, the distances for the top 3 runners of the top 2 teams, USA and Poland, are simply mind blowing: 256.40 km/159.32 average km/miles per runner (“AMR”) for Team USA and 250.58 km/155 for Poland. These averages [emphasis added] would have won the individual gold medal at the World Championship in 10 out of the 12 prior WC’s. 2019 Team USA’s pre-race cumulative team distance (769 km) is almost 20 kilometers farther than their 2017 World Championship event record of 740 km. In fact, Team USA’s bench cumulative distance-(i.e. #4, #5 and #6 runners) would have also won gold in 10 prior events.

Comparative Qualifying Statistics for Top 10 Teams

Country	Team KM	Team Miles	Team Avg. MPR	Team Avg KPR	Bench KM	Bench Miles
USA	769.21	477.97	159.32	256.40	717.85	446.05
POL	751.75	467.11	155.70	250.58	692.30	430.18
GER	725.25	450.65	150.22	241.75	660.38	410.34
JPN	691.02	429.38	143.13	230.34	221.99	137.94
GBR	678.02	421.30	140.43	226.01	429.24	266.72
CRO	669.89	416.25	138.75	223.30	376.20	233.76
FIN	667.54	414.79	137.21	222.51	560.90	348.53
FRA	662.44	411.62	136.11	220.81	633.07	393.37
HUN	657.16	408.34	136.11	219.05	0.00	0.00
IRL	650.87	404.43	134.81	216.96	205.02	127.39

Individual & Team Gold Medal Performances in Prior World Championships

Year	Gold Medal Distance (km)(Individual)	Gold Medal Distance (miles) (Individual)	Gold Medal Distance (km)(Team)	Gold Medal Distance (miles) (Team)
2003	237.05	147.30	684.86	425.55
2004	237.15	147.36	661.56	411.07
2005	242.23	150.51	709.57	440.91
2006	237.14	147.35	671.48	417.24
2007	236.85	147.17	671.33	417.14
2008	239.69	148.93	708.76	440.40
2009	243.64	151.39	684.08	425.07
2010	239.80	149.00	685.80	426.14
2012	244.23	151.76	694.62	431.62
2013	252.21	156.71	710.60	441.55
2015	244.50	151.92	720.05	447.42
2017	259.99	161.55	740.86	460.35

Does any team other than Team USA or Team Poland have a realistic chance (or odds) of winning the gold? No, nope, nada, nil, naught and not gonna happen. Odds? Zilch, zip and zero.

A team winning the gold other than the USA or Poland would, in my opinion, be the greatest upset in sports history, even bigger than these oldies but goodies:·

• Miracle on Ice-Hockey USA (4), Team USSR (3) 1980 Winter Olympics
• 1990 Buster Douglas knocks out Mike Tyson
• 1950 FIFA World Cup USA (1), England (0) “Kings of Football
• Horse Racing (100-1) underdog Upset beats undefeated Man o’ War
• 1969 Super Bowl Jets 16, Colts 7
• College Football 2007 Appalachian State (34), Michigan (32)

IF it were be done, look for Japan or Germany to be spoiler but its most likely they will do battle for bronze. Japan has the advantage based on the potential of Japan’s number 3 runner, Aiko Kanematsu. She is a 7:44 100 km runner.

Why do oddsmakers feel so strongly on a Poland or USA win? Look at the disparity in distances between third ranked Germany compared to Poland and USA. Germany’s AMR is more than 5 miles per runner (i.e. 15 miles total) to Team Poland and almost 10 miles per runner (i.e. 30 miles total) to Team USA. That is a TON of miles to overcome. On top of that, the USA and Poland have the deepest benches of all the teams, with three runners ready, willing, and able to replace a faltering scoring member.

In fact, the USA and Poland women’s team distance totals ranks 7^th and 10^th among the men’s teams. Even more impressive is that Team USA’s average of 159.32 miles per runner is less than a mile difference than the average distance of the 2^nd– 6^th ranked men’s teams (Spain, France, United States & Poland). I’m really not sure that there needs to be separate divisions based on sex. If I were a betting man, I would without hesitation take the USA’s women’s team, straight up, against any of the men’s World Championship teams, except possibly Japan.

Team USA v. Team Poland – A look back to 2017

USA and Poland brought strong teams into Belfast for the 2018  World Championship.  The USA placed three runners in the top five and won the women’s team title with a combined distance of 740.856km (a record distance for World Championship). Despite having the top two individual finishers, Poland missed out on the team title by the narrow margin of 622 meters, racking up a combined distance of 740.234km.  Some way behind, Germany took the team bronze medals with 689.622km. The USA women commanded a massive lead a midway through the race (we will fact check – but ~50 miles), only to see if fade. Had the race been a 24 hour and 5 minute race, Poland may have secured the top podium position. You could not ask for a better backdrop going to this weekend’s race…..

Team USA v. Team Poland

Let’s drill down and look at the head-to-head statistics of these two powerhouse teams.

USA (4 returning runners from 2017 WC)

Runner	Kilometers	Miles
Camille Herron	262.186	162.91
Courtney Dauwalter	256.405	159.32
Katalin Nagy	250.622	155.73
Gina Slaby	248.276	154.27
Pam Smith	243.355	151.21
Megan Alvarado	236.357	146.87

Poland (5 returning runners from 2017 WC)

Runner	Kilometers	Miles
Patrycja Bereznowska	259.991	161.55
Aleksandra Niwinska	251.078	156.01
Malgorzata Pazda-Pozorska	240.679	149.55
Monika Biegasiewicz	236.401	146.89
Aneta Rajda	228.388	141.91
Milena Grabska-Grzegorczyk	227.511	141.37

Head to Head to Head Matchup

#1- Herron (USA) v. Bereznowska (Poland) – draw 162.91 v. 161.55 (miles). Draw (1.36 miles)

#2-Dauwalter (USA) v. Niwinska (Poland) 159.32 v. 156.01. Advantage Team USA (3.31 miles)

#3 Nagy (USA) v. Pazda-Pozorska (Poland) 155.73 v. 149.55 Advantage Team USA (6.18 miles)

#4 Slaby (USA) v. Biegasiewicz (Poland) 154.27 v. 146.89 Advantage Team USA (7.38 miles)

#5 Smith (USA) v. Rajda (Poland) 151.21 v. 141.91 Advantage Team USA (9.3 miles)

#6 Alvarado (USA) v. Grabska-Grzegorczyk (Poland) 146.87 v. 141.37 Advantage Team USA (5.5 miles)

Conclusion: Remember that only the top 3 runners for each team are scored. Herron, the current World Record Holder, is evenly matched with Berenoska, the former WR Holder. Team USA has a slight advantage in the #2 spot with Dauwalter holding a 3.31-mile advantage against Niwinska. The deciding factor between the two teams will likely come down to the performance of the final scoring member. I like the US chances with its #3 and #4 runners having qualifying performances (Nagy 155.73 and Slaby 154.27) that are more than 5 files farther than the qualifying performance of Poland’s #3 runner, Pazda-Pozorska (149.55 miles).

Individual Glory or Team?

The contest may turn out to be one of risk vs. reward depending on a particular runner’s goal. Each runner needs to decide if they are running for their own personal glory or for the team. Oftentimes the pacing strategy may be different depending on the chosen goal.

A runner who is pacing for a personal best performance is likely to be at higher risk for a “crash & burn”, since by definition, they will be trying to go further than ever before. Team runners may want to consider pacing for a targeted distance that is actually a few miles less than their prior best performance, if it is in the best interest of their team.   A poor performance from any one of a team’s scoring members may dramatically alter the team outcome.

Think best ball format in golf where 4 team golfers choose the best shot of the group to play. Oftentimes, in this format, the first couple of players will play it safe and simply try to hit the ball down the middle of the course to ensure a ball is in play and not out of bounds. They may even hit an iron rather than a wood to ensure accuracy. Once a “safe” shot is made, the remaining players have the luxury of taking a chance.

A similar team strategy can also be employed in a 24-hour championship, particularly since a “Crash & Burn” is tantamount to an out-of-bounds golf shot. Some teams may decide to have their runners target a particular distance (e.g 153.45 miles) that is likely to win the gold as a team, and wait until the last 4 hours for any team member to run a faster pace.

How about pacing among teammates? Unlike the USATF rules, pacing among same sex teammates is permitted in most circumstances.

The IAAF/IAU rules explicitly allow teams to pace together in World Championships (Major IAU Competition), as long as it is among the same sex (e.g. no man can run with any woman as they are taking part in separate events; open race athletes are also in a separate event and cannot pace MIAUC participants; and any runner who has retired during the event must take no further part at all.)

I remember when I ran the World Championship in 2012 (Katowice) and 2013 (Steenbergen). Team Japan packed its runners from the start in a herd. It brought back my days running high school and college cross country, where many of the top teams “packed” their runners, oftentimes without any of their runners making the podium. It was often team first and individual glory second.

This will be a race for the ages. We are looking forward to covering the race starting Saturday am, October 26th at 10:00 am (CEST).  It is shaping up to be a great battle of wills and teamwork.

2019 IAU 24 Hour World Championship – Men’s Individual

Joe Fejes returns again to offer up his preview on the 2019 IAU World Championship.  Men’s race. Joe was on the 2013 USA Team that won gold with a third all-time distance of  781km. He was a scoring member with 248.14km. He was also part of the 2012 (Katowice) bronze medal team with Mike Morton and Harvey Lewis.  Joe holds the 6-Day American Record with 606 and recently completed 532 miles at 6 Days at the Dome, a race he also created and directed. He had an earlier than expected exit from Big Dog’s Backyard Ultra last weekend – which gives him time to complete the women’s preview which we will also share!  Below is Joe’s take on what to expect in the MEN’S INDIVIDUAL COMPETITION:

The men’s individual race will be a sight to behold as you have Lithuania’s Alexandr “if you ain’t first your last” Sorokin squaring off with Spain’s rising superstar Ivan “I’m not Terrible” Penalba Lopez. Both runners have recent 272+ km 24-hour performances and are capable of even greater numbers.

Sorokin is easily the most exciting 24-hour male ultrarunner performing today. His aggressive, in your face, running style is designed to either win the gold brilliantly or implode. He is not afraid to fail which makes him especially dangerous and unpredictable. Oh, did I mention he has 6:50 100km leg speed? At the 2016 European 24-hour World Championship (coincidentally which was held on the same course in Albi), Sorokin rocketed to an 18 km lead over his before giving it all back over the last three hours, on his way to a 6^th place finish (251.61 km). To put things in perspective, his 12-hour split was 153.70 km/95.50 miles or 191 mile 24-hour pace.

In last year’s 2018 European 24-hour Championship in Romania, Sorokin finished 3^rd, 5 km behind the winner, aforementioned Andre Radzikowski. To given you further insight into Sorokin’s attacking running style, he was an hour and a half ahead of Radazikowski at the 100-mile split (12:50 vs. 14:19).

In 2017, Sorokin won the Spartathlon with a brilliant 22:04, which is the second-best time in Spartathlon history, behind only the legendary Golden Greek himself, Yiannis Kouros.

Earlier this year he won the Sri Chinmoy 24 hour in Switzerland with 272.70 km and was at 150/93 miles km at the 12-hour mark. I fully expect Sorokin to be far ahead of the field at the halfway point. What’s the saying about the Zebra and her stripes or is it the Leopard and his spots? Whether he can hang on and win his first 24 hour World Championship is the question.

Sorokin will be tested though by 28–year-old phenom Ivan “I’m not Terrible” Penalba Lopez of Spain, an intriguing storyline in his own right, and legitimate threat to win the gold in Albi. Lopez can match Sorokin in raw leg speed as evidenced by his 6:58 100k earlier this year. He also has the second and third best 12-hour marks in the World this year-both 155-kilometer efforts, behind only Zach Bitter’s 168 km World Record achieved at the Six Days in the Dome-the Redux.

Since he began running ultras three years ago, Ivan has won 24 of the 25 ultras he has entered. His lone defeat was coincidentally at the 2017 24-hour World Championship in Belfast, where he finished 120^th overall with a paltry 204.97 km. Since then, he has won 21 straight races including three 24-hour races with the following respective distances 249.32, 273.67 and 258.89 (Soochow Invitational). At Soochow, Lopez pasted last year’s 24-hour gold medalist Yoshihiko Ishikawa, and two other of Japan’s feared runners: Takahashi and Naraki. For comparison sake, at Soochow 100-mile split, Lopez ran 13:48, Ishikawa 14:32, Naraki’s 14:34, Lawson (Dan); 14:34 and Takahashi 14:52.

As further evidence of his badassery, last year, Ivan competed in a 50k race in Hungary which included this year’s second place finisher at Spartathlon, Hungary’s Zoltan “the Bolt” Csecsei. Ivan won the race running 3:22 and beating the “Bolt”, on his home turf by more than 20 minutes.

Less than 5 kilometers behind Lopez and Sorokin, are three familiar faces in the global ultrarunning community: Japan’s Nobuyuki Takahashi, Sweden’s Johan Steene and Poland’s Andrezej “Radical” Radzikowski.

Nobuyuki Takahashi is a step or two behind Sorokin and Lopez as far as leg speed is concerned however will surely be poised if they falter. He won the silver medal at last year’s Asia and Oceania IAU Championship with 252 km effort. He also qualified for Japan’s team by winning at Jingu Gaien 24-hour National Championship with a 268.78 km/167.01 mile effort. This will be his second World Championship. In 2017, at the IAU World Championship in Belfast, Takahashi was just off the podium in 4^th place with 264.50 km. Takahashi is super consistent having exceeded 250 km in five of his seven 24-hour races.

The next best podium candidates are Sweden’s Johan Steene (266.51 km/165.60 miles) who won the bronze in the 2017 World Championship and Poland’s Andre “Radical” Radzikowski who took the gold at the 2018 European Championship with 265.41 km/164.92 miles. Both are in their prime, savvy, and I see no reason they will not replicate or better their prior performances.

Others: There are twenty runners qualified with performances between 157-164 miles, including three American’s Rich Riopel, Olivier LeBlond and Steve Slaby. All these runners are capable of the podium as well.

Keep your eyes particularly on Dan “not Danny Boy” Lawson, smilin’ Rich Riopel and Steve “the better half” Slaby.

• Lawson is the defending champion at Albi having won the gold in the 2016 European Championship.
• Riopel is coming off some serious hardcore training including time spent at high altitude.
• Slaby needs to put up a big number to prove to his wife Gina (running in the Women’s WC) who wears the Altra’s in the family.

Oddsmaker’s Podium Predictions:

• Gold Medal: Alexandr Sorokin – the past few years he has crashed and burned in major 24 Hour Championships after a commanding lead at the halfway point. Not in 2019—look for him to bring it home while singing Jon Bon Jovi’s:

“Woah, we’re half-way there
Woah, livin’ on a prayer
Take my hand, we’ll make it I swear
Woah, livin’ on a prayer

• Silver Medal: Ivan Lopez-Ivan’s only loss and subpar performance was the last 24 Hour World Championship—this time around he gets redemption.
• Bronze Medal – look for a free-for-all for the last podium spot—in the end it will be the Red, White and Blue–just not sure who.

#	Runner	Kilometers	Miles
1	PENALVA LOPEZ, IVAN	273.674	170.053
2	SOROKIN, ALEKSANDR	272.708	169.453
3	TAKAHASHI, NOBUYUKI	268.783	167.014
4	STEENE, JOHAN	266.515	165.605
5	RADZIKOWSKI, ANDREZEJ	265.419	164.924
6	RUEL, STEPHANE	263.540	163.756
7	LAWSON, DANIEL	261.843	162.702
8	NARAKI, TOSHIRO	261.605	162.554
9	RIOPEL, RICH	260.425	161.821
10	INOUE, SHINGO	260.043	161.583
11	WEBER, FELIX	260.016	161.566
12	LEBLOND, OLIVIER	259.194	161.056
13	VELIČKA, ONDREJ	258.946	160.902
14	DE LAS HERAS MONFORTE, NIC	257.745	160.155
15	LOVEDAY, BARRY	257.000	159.692
16	DILMI, LUDOVIC	256.688	159.499
17	KRONEN TRANGER, BJORN TORE	256.443	159.346
18	PIOTROWSKI, ANDRZEJ	255.499	158.760
19	CSECSEI, ZOLTAN	254.908	158.392
20	BATSBERG, BRUNO	254.503	158.141
21	CLAVERY, ERIK	254.264	157.992
22	JACKSON, JACOB	253.607	157.584
23	ECKFORD, MATTHEW	253.000	157.207
24	LUX, CHRISTOPH	252.833	157.103
25	SLABY, STEVE	252.720	157.033

We are looking forward to covering the race starting Saturday am, October 26th at 10:00 am (CEST).  It is shaping up to be a great battle of wills and teamwork.

 

2019 IAU 24 Hour World Championship – Men’s Team Preview

Joe Fejes returns again to offer up his preview on the 2019 IAU World Championship.  Men’s race. Joe was on the 2013 USA Team that won gold with a third all-time distance of  781km. He was a scoring member with 248.14km. He was also part of the 2012 (Katowice) bronze medal team with Mike Morton and Harvey Lewis. Joe holds the 6-Day American Record with 606 and recently completed 532 miles at 6 Days at the Dome, a race he also created and directed. He had an earlier than expected exit from Big Dog’s Backyard Ultra last weekend – which gives him time to complete the women’s preview which we will also share!  Below is Joe’s take on what to expect in the MEN’S TEAM COMPETITION:

2019 IAU 24 HOUR WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP

Hosted by Albi, France, the race will be held on a fast, flat 1500-meter course, consisting of two surfaces, a 1050 meter mixed road surface and 450 meter track.  The IAU World Championship, currently held every other year, is the pinnacle event for short loop ultras to determine who can run the furthest distance in 24 hours to earn a gold medal and bragging rights as World Champion. In addition, there is team competition where the scoring format is decided according to the addition of the performances (kms) of each Federation’s best three runners. This year the competition will feature more than 350 runners from 45 Federations. Currently, there are 219 men and 159 women on the provisional start list. The race is open only for athletes of IAU member Federations. Only athletes and teams officially registered by their National Federation will count for the IAU 24H World Championships teams’ result. Unfortunately, the Russian Federation is still subject to the IAAF bank and will not be competing. Every country can send 9 men and 9 women and nominate 6 men and 6 women (with a maximum of 3, 6, or 9 officials according to team numbers).

Not all Federations bring full teams. Having a deep bench help’s since a team needs a minimum of 3 runners to score and it is not uncommon for a 24-hour runner to have a bad day.

There are 11 countries that have less than 3 men (ALG, AND, CRO, GRE, MKD, NED, NOR, PAR, SUI, SVK and SWE); and 17 teams with less than 3 women. (ALG, AND, ARG, BIH, DEN, ESP, LAT, LTU, MKD, NED, NOR, PAR, SLO, SRB, SUI, SVK & SWE). As a result, none of these teams will be eligible to compete for the team championship.

LOOKING BACK – WHAT HAPPENED IN THE LAST WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP?

(2017 BELFAST, IRELAND) TEAM COMPETITION

 Top 5 Men’s Team results (2017 Belfast):

1 Japan 783.159km
2 Poland 763.630km
3 USA 755.458km
4 Hungary 752.867km
5 France 752.813km

In the men’s team competition, Belfast was a complete and utter shocker. Great Britain, the pre-race favorite, had a melt down with its top three runners finishing 27, 33 & 35, off the podium, and outside the top 5 in the team scoring.

Team Japan, picked third pre-race, ended up crushing the men’s team competition, one again taking home the gold and beat the runner-up Team Poland by more than 20 kilometers. Team Japan top three runners finished 1st, 4th and 15^th.

Team Poland, the 4^th ranked team pre-race, anchored by silver medalist, Sebastian Białobrzeski’s sparkling 267-kilometer monster performance grabbed the silver medal, with its three scoring members finishing 2^nd, 19^th & 20^th, respectively.

Team USA, the second ranked team pre-race, slipped a spot but still ended up on the podium, in third place, with its top three runners finishing respectively, 8^th, 14^th & 24^th.

Team Hungary, ranked 8^th pre-race, finished 4^th, edging out Team France by less than .06 kilometers.

LOOKING AHEAD – WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE 2019 TEAM COMPETITION?

 Below is a comparison chart showing the respective 24-hour distance totals (in kilometers and miles) for the top 3 runners for each country using their best 24-hour performance in the last 3 years as listed on the IAU entry sheet. (Note: If historical 24-hour best were used the results would be dramatically different. For example, Shingo Inoue of Japan best 24-hour performance in the past three years is only 260 kilometers while his personal best achieved 9 years ago was (273 km), a whopping 13 kilometers further. If historical personal bests were used, then the “paper” results might change dramatically.)

Country	Kilometers	Miles	2019 Pre-Race	2017 Pre-Race	2017 Actual	Bench
Japan	790	491	1	3	1	4
Spain	776	482	2			4
France	774	481	3	5	5	5
United States	773	480	4	2	3	6
Poland	772	480	5	4	2	6
Great Britain	762	474	6	1		6
Australia	762	473	7	7		6
Germany	756	470	8	6		6
Czech	748	465	9	9		6
Denmark	737	458	10			6
Hungary	723	449	11	8	4	4
Ireland	722	449	12	11		5
Romania	709	441	13	x		5
Finland	706	439	15	12		6
Italy	698	433	0	10		6

 Let me speak the truth. Japan has been a dynasty throughout the history of the 24-hour World Championship. Japan’s men’s team has reached the podium in 10 of the 12 events with 7 golds, 2 silvers and 1 bronze. No other country has won more than one gold.

Is there any chance that Japan will not continue its domination and win the gold at the 2019 World Championship in Albi will be any different? “Yes” though my answer reminds me of the time I was in a redneck bar in Atlanta and happened to ask the drunk guy sitting on the barstool next to me why he had a “13.5” tattoo on his arm. He replied, “I got it after I got out of Brushy Mountain State Prison “because I had twelve jurors, one judge and a half ass of a chance” at trial.

Teams chasing Japan may share the same fate.

If Japan falters, Spain, France, Poland and the USA (“Tier A”) are however, all ready, willing and capable of climbing the podium steps.

Now for a deeper dive into each team’s lineup along with my analysis and commentary.

JAPAN-Defending World Champion

Takahashi & Naraki are the two returning team members from Japan’s 2017 gold medal team. Shingo Inoue and Ryo Abiko are replacing 24 WC stalwarts Shuhei Odani and Yoshihiko Ishikawa, the individual overall gold medalist.

Although Inoue and Abiko were not on the 2017 team, they both have oodles of experience running for Japan in 24 Hour World Championships. Inoue beat me by a few kilometers back in 2012 Katowice 24-hour WC. He also had the world best 24-hour performance in 2010 with a 273.70 km performance. Similarly, Abiko ran 2010 Brive, 2012 Katowice and 2013 Steenbergen. He finished 4^th in the 2012 WC and 10^th at Steenbergen WC (coincidentally immediately behind me) with his personal best 24-hour of 255.48 km. If 24-hour personal best were used instead of the best performance in the past three years, then Team Japan total kilometers/miles would be: 804 km/499 miles. For comparison sake, below is the top 3 team performances in the IAU 24-hour World Championship.

All-Time 24 Hour Team Men IAU World Championship

Japan’s 2019 team certainly has the potential to be the best ever.

BEST OF THE REST

(“Tier A”) 4 teams (Spain, France, USA and Poland) have virtually identical cumulative miles and are all less than 10 miles behind Japan.

SPAIN-Tier A – Spain is anchored by young superstar Ivan “I’m anything but terrible” Penalva Lopez. Age 28, Ivan is coming off a world best 273 km/170-mile, 24-hour performance, which is tops among the Albi entrants. Spain’s number 2 runner, Nicolas de Las Heras Monforte, is also a 160+ miles guy however he is 54 years old. Spain’s other issue, if they have one, is a significant drop-off with their #3 runner and the lack of a deep bench (only 1 runner).

FRANCE-Tier A – France has the deepest bench of all teams (469 miles), however, they too have serious question mark with their aging roster. France’s top two runners Stephan Ruel (53) and Ludovic Dilmi (54), were old men when I ran against them in the 2013 World Championship at Steenbergen. How many more World Championship editions can these legends defy Father Time? Rest assured Ruel and Dilmi will have to step up one more time for France to enter the pearly podium steps. Four of France’s runners (Ruel, Dilmi, Ruiz & Gerardin) are returning from their 2017 team.

 

 

 

 

 

USA-Tier A – Call me an optimist, but if the stars align, I believe that Old Glory has favorable odds of being waved on top of the podium. Four USA runners (Riopel, LeBlond, Slaby, and Lewis) are returning from the 2017 WC bronze medal team. On paper, this is by far, the strongest 24- hour USA team ever as evidenced by the 2019 qualification performances. For the 2019 team qualification, Greg Armstrong grabbed the last team qualifying spot with 155+ miles. For a comparison, in 2009, Phil McCarthy had the BEST American 24-hour performance with 151 miles.

Team USA is in a virtual tie with France in terms of both cumulative miles and depth of bench. Team USA gets a nod based on the youthfulness (average age 43.5) of its roster compared to France (48.8).   All six USA runners can run 160+ miles which is critical prerequisite to winning the World Championship-at least without an individual medalist. Japan’s winning team total last year was 491 miles which averages out to 163.66 miles per team member.   All 6 of the USA runners have recent 24-hour performances that are relatively close to Japan’s 2017 gold medal 163-mile average.

I acknowledge that Japan’s top 3 runners all have 24-hour performances that are better than any of the USA top 3, which admittedly could be a little intimidating. However, Japan only has 1 runner on its bench so if any of their top 3 has an off day, the team average can be dramatically different. So, while team USA is at a slight disadvantage of approximately 3.5 miles per scoring runner, it has a definitive advantage because of its deep team bench.

 POLAND-Tier A – Team Poland matches Team USA in miles and youth (average age 41.16). Three of its runners (Radical, Piotrowski & Basa) return from Poland’s 2017 WC however they will be missing 2017 silver medalist, Sebastian Białobrzeski. In my opinion, Team USA has a slightly deeper bench when you compare the cumulative mileage total of the two teams 468 v. 451.

(Tier “B”): Great Britain, Germany and Australia are within 10 miles of the Tier A countries.

• Great Britain is retooling its arsenal with newcomers Grant MacDonald, Michael Stock, Paul Maskell, Craig Holgate. Dan Lawson and James Stewart are the holdovers from the 2017 GBR team.
• Germany’s roster is completely new compared to its 2017 team.
• Lookout for Australia with 4 of its 2017 runners returning to join monster Barry Loveday.

(Tier C”): Czech is within 10 miles of the Tier B countries. I also really like Czech’s team with 4 returning runners, including Radek Brunner and Ondrej Velicka. If one of their other four runners steps up, they have the talent to undoubtedly bump a Tier A or B federation from the podium.

CONCLUSION:  Here are what the oddsmakers say:

1 Japan
2 USA
3 France
4 Poland
5 Spain

Sleepers to watch: Australia & Czech

We are looking forward to covering the race starting Saturday am, October 26th at 10:00 am (CEST).  It is shaping up to be a great battle of wills and teamwork.